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Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, has warned that any attempt to restore petrol subsidy would reverse the economic gains recorded from the Federal Government’s ongoing reforms.
Idris said the renewed calls for the return of petrol subsidy must be assessed against the fiscal resources released by its removal and the potential economic consequences of reversing the policy.
He recalled that Nigeria spent about $10 billion on fuel subsidies in 2022 amid declining oil production and weak government revenues, while the World Bank had warned that the subsidy was diverting resources that could otherwise be invested in education, healthcare, infrastructure and social protection.
According to him, the Tinubu administration inherited the system and took the decision to reform it in order to address the country’s longstanding fiscal pressures.
Speaking against the backdrop of the Federal Government’s recent “Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard: The Benefits, Costs and Harms Prevented,” Idris said Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that subsidy savings had mobilised N15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
He said about N5.43 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, N6.52 trillion to the states and N3.88 trillion to local governments.
Idris clarified that the N15.8 trillion was not a separate pool of money sitting in government accounts, but represented resources released within the Federation’s broader fiscal system and made available to the three tiers of government.
He said the additional resources had strengthened the ability of states and local governments to meet salary and pension obligations while investing in infrastructure and essential services such as primary healthcare, basic education and roads.
At the federal level, he said, the expanded fiscal space had supported major investments and obligations that would have been more difficult to sustain under the former subsidy regime.
The minister cited the Reform Scorecard as showing about N6.47 trillion in additional expenditure on strategic infrastructure, covering investments in transport, housing, agriculture, security and other sectors.
Among the projects highlighted were the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway and Trans-Sahara Superhighway.
He added that the reforms had also created room for increased investment in human capital and social protection, with more than 10 million Nigerian households benefiting from social transfers.
According to Idris, the administration had also committed more than N400 billion to major social investment initiatives, including N223.8 billion for the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, N150 billion for the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund and N50 billion for the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation.
He further argued that increased domestic and foreign investor confidence had contributed to stronger economic indicators, including improved stock market performance, higher external reserves and increased oil production.
Idris said the additional fiscal space had also supported wage adjustments, minimum-wage obligations and pension payments while expanding the government’s capacity to invest in education, healthcare, agriculture, electricity and security.
He warned that reversing the subsidy policy could also undermine developments in Nigeria’s petroleum industry, particularly the expansion of domestic refining capacity.
According to him, restoring the subsidy at this stage would create policy uncertainty for investors and weaken efforts to consolidate domestic refining and improve the country’s energy security.
The minister also said the Reform Scorecard assessed potential economic consequences that Nigeria could have faced had the subsidy regime remained unchanged.
He claimed that petrol scarcity could have worsened, with black-market prices potentially exceeding N3,000 per litre, while the Federal Government’s Ways and Means financing, which stood at about N30 trillion in May 2023, could have doubled to N60 trillion or more.
He added that the fiscal crisis affecting states that struggled to meet salary obligations could also have become more severe.
Idris further noted that Nigeria was already bearing the cost of electricity subsidies, which he said amounted to N3.14 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025.
He warned that introducing another subsidy on petrol consumption would place additional pressure on government finances.
The minister acknowledged that the reforms had imposed significant economic hardships on Nigerians and had not resolved all the country’s economic challenges.
However, he argued that the appropriate response was to accelerate the benefits of the reforms rather than reverse them.
“The objective is clear: to move public resources away from subsidising consumption and towards investing in the Nigerian people and the productive foundations of lasting prosperity,” he said.
Idris also framed the subsidy debate as a question of competing priorities, asking whether Nigeria should return to petrol subsidies or preserve funding for student loans, consumer credit, infrastructure, healthcare, education, social protection and higher allocations to states and local governments.
He said the organised private sector and wider economic community had also cautioned against reversing the reforms, citing the importance of fiscal sustainability, policy stability and a competitive downstream petroleum sector to investment, job creation and economic growth.
“Nigeria cannot build tomorrow’s economy by returning to yesterday’s unsustainable subsidy regime. We have moved beyond that model,” Idris said.
He maintained that the Federal Government remained focused on translating the sacrifices associated with the reforms into improved living standards, stronger public services and greater economic opportunities for Nigerians.
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