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Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to a peak of 1.78 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July, the highest level recorded year-to-date (YTD). The July production was about a five per cent uptrend compared to the 1.7 mbpd average output recorded in June.
Production has risen steadily from January, boosting the prospect of realising the 2.06 mbpd budget benchmark before year-end.
The rebound offers a significant fiscal reprieve after the country lost over $5.3 billion in potential revenue between January and June due to persistent underproduction.
Commission Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, disclosed this at the opening of the 2025 edition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE), held in Lagos yesterday.
Komolafe, who was represented by the Commission’s Executive Commissioner, Development and Production, Enorense Amadasu, described the production recovery as a “significant milestone” under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Oil Production Mandate. He said the improvement came after months of steep output deficits that had strained the country’s fiscal and foreign exchange outlook.
“We crossed the 1.8 million barrels per day mark at the peak production last month, with average production hovering at 1.78 mbpd. The progress reflects the multi-stakeholder efforts and regulatory initiatives we have implemented under our production enhancement framework,” he said.
The Federal Government had pegged the 2025 budget at a production benchmark of 2.06 mbpd and a crude oil price of $75 per barrel. Oil revenue was expected to contribute significantly to the N28.7 trillion budget, accounting for an estimated N15.7 trillion or over 50 per cent of total projected revenue.
However, actual production volume in the first half of 2025 showed that Nigeria was distantly short of the output target. In January, average daily production stood at about 1.74 mbpd, 320,000 barrels below the budget benchmark, leading to a monthly shortfall of 9.92 million barrels.
In February, the gap widened to 390,000 barrels per day, resulting in a deficit of around 11.3 million barrels for the month. March witnessed a steeper decline, with production trailing by 460,000 barrels per day, translating to nearly 14.3 million barrels in lost output.
In April, production recovered slightly to 1.68 mbpd, with the daily shortfall standing at 380,000. That brought the monthly shortfall to about 11.4 million barrels. Output dipped again in May to 1.66 mbpd, leaving a 12.4-million-barrel monthly gap. June saw a modest rebound to 1.7 mbpd, but not without a monthly output deficit of 10.8 million barrels.
Cumulatively, the figures placed Nigeria at a crude production shortfall of approximately 70.67 million barrels in the first half of the year (H1).
At the government’s benchmark price of $75 per barrel, the loss translated to over $5.3 billion in revenue, equivalent to about N7.95 trillion. Industry stakeholders have blamed the underperformance on widespread crude theft, pipeline vandalism, limited upstream investment and operational disruptions at major oilfields and export terminals.
Komolafe said the July output rebound was partly driven by the Project 1 MMBOPD Incremental Initiative, which aims to boost national production by one million barrels per day through collaborative strategies and optimisation of field operations. He added that NUPRC worked with operators to synchronise turnaround maintenance schedules, reduce downtime and optimise the maximum efficient rate (MER) across production assets.
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