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Ten years after Nigeria last attempted to establish the scale of illicit small arms in the country, the Federal Government is preparing a fresh nationwide assessment of the weapons fuelling banditry, terrorism, communal violence and organised crime.
The exercise, which is expected to produce an updated National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons, is being positioned as a major intelligence tool for the Tinubu administration’s fight against insecurity.
The development was disclosed on Wednesday in Abuja at a workshop organised by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCCSALW) to examine lessons from the country’s 2016 baseline survey.
Representing the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, the Director of External Affairs at the Office of the NSA, Solomon Fehintola, said Nigeria could no longer afford to formulate weapons-control policies using outdated information.
Ribadu linked illicit weapons to several of the country’s major security challenges, saying they sustain banditry in the North-West, fuel farmer-herder violence in the North-Central, arm criminal gangs in urban centres and support terrorist groups in the North-East.
“Government’s response to this threat cannot be based on guesswork. It must be built on evidence,” Ribadu said.
He said an accurate national database would strengthen the government’s ability to identify weapons flows, improve counter-proliferation operations and determine where disarmament interventions are most urgently required.
The Federal Government also wants the new exercise to involve more than security agencies and government institutions.
According to Ribadu, sub-national governments, traditional and religious institutions, civil society groups and affected communities must contribute to the process if the survey is to provide a realistic picture of the country’s illicit arms problem.
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The United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs backed the move, warning that Nigeria’s security landscape has changed too significantly for the country to continue relying primarily on data gathered in 2016.
Adedeji Ebo, Director and Deputy High Representative of the UN office, said the decade-old information could no longer adequately capture the current scale, sources and movement of illegal weapons.
“You cannot conduct a solid national threat analysis in 2026 based solely on data from 2016,” Ebo said.
He said criminal networks had evolved, trafficking routes had changed and new forms of armed violence had emerged, making fresh data essential to effective policy.
Ebo also warned against relying exclusively on official records, arguing that communities affected by violence often possess information that may never reach government databases.
He identified traditional and religious leaders, women’s organisations, youth groups, farmers, fishers, artisanal producers and survivors of armed violence as important sources of information for the new survey.
He also called for proper training and protection of enumerators, particularly those who will collect information from communities affected by insecurity.
The Director-General of the NCCSALW, retired DIG Johnson Kokumo, said the security environment confronting Nigeria today was considerably different from that of 2016.
He said patterns of armed violence had shifted, new forms of criminality had emerged and weapons traffickers had adapted their routes and methods.
“Nigeria’s security environment has evolved considerably. The nature and patterns of armed violence have changed. New forms of criminality have emerged, trafficking routes and methods have adapted,” Kokumo said.
He added that illicit weapons proliferation now interacts with political, social, economic, environmental and security challenges, making a fresh assessment necessary.
The 2016 baseline survey represented Nigeria’s first major attempt to establish a national picture of illicit small arms and light weapons. Its findings contributed to subsequent policy measures, including the establishment of the NCCSALW and the development of a National Action Plan on small arms control.
But a decade later, the government is effectively acknowledging that the old map may no longer reflect the weapons landscape confronting the country
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