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As the Ondo State governorship election approaches on November 16, all eyes are on the two main contenders: incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Agboola Ajayi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has confirmed the delivery of all necessary materials for the election, transported by the Nigerian Air Force and received by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Over 2 million registered voters are eligible to cast their ballots in the 18 local government areas of Ondo State.
While 17 candidates are contesting, the real battle is between Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi. Ajayi, who once served as Deputy Governor under the late Rotimi Akeredolu, is seeking a political comeback after falling out with the APC. Both candidates bring unique strengths to the table, but their campaigns reflect stark contrasts in strategy, political affiliation, and voter engagement. This report assesses their prospects in the race.
*Lucky Aiyedatiwa: Incumbency Advantage*
*Background and Ascension*
Lucky Aiyedatiwa assumed the position of Governor of Ondo State on December 27, 2023, after the passing of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Aiyedatiwa’s tenure is marked by his continuity of Akeredolu’s policies, as he seeks to complete the term that ends in February 2025.
*Securing the Party’s Candidacy*
In April 2024, Aiyedatiwa won the APC nomination after a contentious primary battle, securing his position as the party’s candidate. His success in this contest, despite internal party divisions, reinforced his standing as the favored candidate for the ruling party.
*Federal Support and Incumbency Advantage*
Aiyedatiwa’s candidacy benefits from the support of the federal government, including backing from President Bola Tinubu, APC governors, and national party leadership. This political “federal might” is a significant asset in Ondo, where the incumbent party often enjoys strong organizational support.
As the sitting governor, Aiyedatiwa has access to state resources, which gives him a considerable advantage over his rivals. His campaign is well-funded, and his party structure is firmly in place.
*Strategic Deputy Selection*
Aiyedatiwa’s choice of Olayide Owolabi Adelami as his running mate is a deliberate strategy to appeal to local voters, particularly in Owo, a politically significant area. Adelami’s background as a former Deputy Clerk of the National Assembly is expected to attract influential stakeholders and boost support in his hometown.
*Legacy and Public Sentiment*
Aiyedatiwa frequently invokes the legacy of Akeredolu, who reportedly saw him as his successor. This continuity of leadership resonates with those who appreciated Akeredolu’s tenure, contributing to Aiyedatiwa’s favorable public image.
His government has also made significant strides in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, which he highlights as part of his campaign’s success. These achievements provide a platform for Aiyedatiwa to argue that he is the best candidate to build on Akeredolu’s legacy.
*Weaknesses*
APC’s Unfavorable Image: Aiyedatiwa faces the challenge of the APC’s declining popularity, due in part to economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the federal government’s handling of national issues. This could dampen his appeal among voters disillusioned with the current administration.
Voter Division: Both Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi hail from the same senatorial zone, potentially splitting the vote in this crucial region and reducing Aiyedatiwa’s base of support.
*Agboola Ajayi (PDP): Grassroots Appeal*
*Political Experience and Background*
Agboola Ajayi brings a wealth of experience to the table. He has served in various political roles, including as a councilor, chairman of Ese-Odo Local Government, and a member of the House of Representatives. His tenure as Deputy Governor from 2016 to 2020 adds to his qualifications, positioning him as a strong challenger to Aiyedatiwa.
*Grassroots Support and Connection with Voters*
Ajayi is known for his strong grassroots support, which could prove crucial in the election. His ability to connect with ordinary citizens and engage with communities across Ondo State sets him apart from his rivals, particularly in rural areas where voter turnout can be pivotal.
*Political Momentum and Influence in the PDP*
Ajayi won the PDP’s gubernatorial primary with a significant margin, securing 264 votes against six other aspirants. This solidified his position within the party and demonstrated his influence among PDP members. His victory has energized his supporters, giving him political momentum as the election draws closer.
*A Comprehensive Agenda for Ondo’s Future*
Ajayi has unveiled a comprehensive 7-point agenda focused on infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, and education. His key proposals include:
Public Safety: Strengthening law enforcement and working with traditional leaders to ensure security across the state.
Agriculture and Food Security: Providing high-yield seeds and other inputs to farmers.
Education: Improving school infrastructure and offering free primary and junior secondary education.
Healthcare: Establishing one primary healthcare center in each of Ondo’s 203 wards, with the aim of ensuring affordable, quality healthcare for all.
These proposals align with the needs of the electorate, addressing issues such as food security, educational access, and healthcare availability.
*Weaknesses*
Political Instability: Ajayi’s history of shifting political allegiances may hinder his credibility. After initially being a member of the APC, he moved to the PDP following a fallout with Akeredolu. His brief tenure with the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in 2020 also raises concerns about his consistency.
Influence of Nyesom Wike: The political actions of Nyesom Wike, a PDP figure who recently switched to the APC, could indirectly impact Ajayi’s prospects. Wike’s reluctance to support other PDP candidates may signal internal party divisions, potentially affecting Ajayi’s campaign.
*Final Thoughts*
The 2024 Ondo governorship election is shaping up to be a contest between Aiyedatiwa’s strong incumbency and federal backing, and Ajayi’s proven grassroots appeal and strategic political moves. While Aiyedatiwa is positioned as the candidate of continuity, Ajayi offers a refreshing alternative focused on local engagement and broad-based reform. With both candidates bringing their own strengths and challenges, Ondo voters face a crucial decision that will shape the state’s future.
